Here is the first of our 2009/10 Seasonal Previews. it comes from our sister site, Wakuba.com…

The Championship

Over the past few seasons the Championship has become one of the most competitive leagues in the world, with 24 teams all of relatively similar standard fighting it out in attritional game after attritional game. Managers and signings that turn out to be good, injuries, luck… all can have a strong influence. So you really can’t rule anyone out, although it is perhaps slightly fanciful to think Barnsley or Scunthorpe will win it.

That is why, in the ‘To Be Promoted’ market, 19 of the 24 sides are 16/1 or less to be promoted – and Scunthorpe are the longest price to finish in the Top 6 at (again) just 16/1. Contrast that with the Premiership, where Burnley are 50/1 to finish Top 6 (remember there are only 20 teams), and you can see the difference. Any one side can beat any other.

Newcastle are currently favourites for the title in most places – as short as 5/1 in places – which seems absurd considering the turmoil on and off the field. Yes, they have good players on paper – but if they cannot perform in the Premier League its unlikely they will fancy a midweek trip to Plymouth. Of course if a takeover is completed they could well have an influx of money designed to bring a quick return to the Premier League – but that is a big if.

Where Newcastle aren’t favourites, West Brom are, and this seems a far better pick. They have the nucleus of the side that went down last season, which is also the team that won the division so comprehensively the year before. In Roberto Di Matteo they have a promising young manager who did well at MK Dons, and will stay true to Tony Mowbray’s footballing principles. At a best price 13/2, if our money was going anywhere, it would be on the Baggies.

Other teams to consider include Boro, the other team to be relegated – they’ve remarkably kept most of their good players, and though Tuncay will probably join Downing in exiting the North East, they still have good players and an excellent crop of youth players.

Roy Keane’s excellent Championship record and the money available at Ipswich makes them a worthy consideration, and the teams who were there or thereabouts last season, like Reading, Cardiff, Preston, and Sheffield United are all worth considering.

After a summer spending spree Nottingham Forest have shortened from 40/1 to 25/1, and could be a decent each way punt even at that reduced price. In Billy Davies they have a canny manager with an excellent record at this level, and the word is they are making a concerted push for the Premier League.

As we said, any team could have a good season and push on – two that stand out are Doncaster, whose end of season form would have taken them into the playoffs over the season (12/1 for top 6) and Nigel Clough’s Derby, although the 3/1 in the same market is very short.

In terms of relegation, in the same way any side could conceivably finish top 6, a lot of sides could be dragged into the mire. It’s difficult to see any of the sides we mentioned as challengers actually getting relegated; but Scunthorpe, Plymouth, Blackpool and Barnsley must be anticipating tough seasons ahead.

Then you have the unknowns; the promoted sides Leicester and Peterborough, Swansea under new manager Paolo Sousa, and teams that could be dark horses like Sheffield Wednesday, Palace, and QPR. Any of these could feature at the top of the table – but also at the bottom!

Now watch one of the few teams we haven’t mentioned streak away at the top of the table…

Our sister site, Wakuba – http://wakuba.com – has been getting some press recently. We see it as a genuine way to make money – an alternative to investing in stocks and shares (and we all know how that’s ended up!). With carefully researched selections, and researchers highlighting relevant trends/issues around players, teams and games, is it really that different from a stockbroker analysing macro and micro economic factors? With a strong track record that you can see here, are we right?

Here is a detailed exploration…

What do you associate with City Traders? Fast cars, rich boys, proud mothers. ‘Little Jonny’s gone to work in the City’, the ultimate success story, the boy done good. It has a kudos, it is a boast, a brag, an honour – it is success.

Contrast that with the sports traders – flat caps, cheap cigars, angry wives. ‘Derek’s gone round the bookies again!’, the bet you can’t afford, the patriachal betrayal. It’s a vice, it’s illicit, it’s shunned, tutted at, looked down on – it is seedy.

Perhaps it is the names in the city, the Merrill Lynchs, JP Morgans, and Goldman Sachs. The fact you need extensive qualifications, an excellent education, and a lot of the time a good network of contacts. Very different from wandering into your local Ladbrokes or logging into your Internet betting account.

But ultimately, what is the difference? City traders factor in macro economic factors like the price of oil, the conflict in the middle east, the presidential election, acts of terrorism, and speculate on how they affect shares on the stock exchange. They garner the information, assess the information, then use the information to ‘take a position’ – basically have a bet. They bet that a stock will go up or down, and profit or lose by the result.

How is this different from trading on sports? Punters assess team information, assess fixtures, form, injuries, priorities, playing styles, and how they will affect teams’ performances. They garner the information, assess the information, then use the information to ‘take a position’ – make a bet. They bet that a team will win or lose (or goals will be over or under, and so on), and profit or loss by the result.

As the current economic climate, the credit crunch, illustrates – traders get it wrong. Just like sports punters, they make the wrong selections, pick the wrong thing – but for them the risk is bringing down whole economies – whole countries – rather than losing the dinner money.

Yes, the stock exchange is more of a macro concept; bear markets and bull markets, recessions and booms triggered by changes in the oil price, natural disasters, trade embargoes – but this is not so far away from sporting ‘seasons’; patches of form, good or bad runs triggered by players in a purple patch, defences keeping clean sheets, players getting lots of bookings.

Although you could contrast ‘trades’ and ‘bets’, they are essentially the same; broken down, a ‘trade’ is simply a position one way or the other, a win or lose. The degree of movement dictates your win or loss, creating a ‘fixed odds’ scenario, where your win is multiplicative of your stake.

In this respect ‘betting’ actually has an advantage – you know how much you could lose, you know your risk, your exposure. With a trade (bar the stop loss) your loss is potentially limitless – your whole stake can be wiped out in one earthquake, tsunami, or terrorist attack.

Not only is your stake limited and defined, it is also much smaller. Where in trading can you make a 10 or 20 fold profit without taking a huge position? A ‘long odds’ winner in sports betting is – relatively – a for more frequent occurrence than a stock increasing twentyfold in value.

So why the stigma? Why is trading admired, lauded and aspired to, whereas betting is criticised, sniffed at, and seen as the prevail of the working classes?

Why indeed. There is no reason, with extensive research and analysis, with effective use of information and resultant ‘positions’, sports trading cannot be as – if not more – profitable than ‘trading’.

A good return right now is 5% – over a year of constant ‘betting’, with researched and evaluated bets, we can make more than that – potentially much more.

And that is the aim of Wakuba – making money by betting on sports. A 5% return would be disappointing over a year – we are aiming for 10-20%. We are betting on outcomes and results that are directly related to the information we gather – exactly the same as a ‘trader’.

You talk about investing in the stock exchange – we are investing in sports. Wakuba – not betting, investing. And we won’t bankrupt anyone.

This post is taken directly from, and with thanks to, Wakuba – a subscription sports advisory service.

The Clough Factor

by Wakuba on Jan.08, 2009, under Selections

Our predictions this week were nothing short of abysmal.

But our friends at Wakuba, a subscription betting service (with some free content) did a whole lot better.

A bumper – nay lucrative – weekend for them, and therefore us, included backing Dortmund in the Bundesliga, laying both Arsenal and Rangers, and then somewhat more spectacularly Tim Cahill to score first in the Everton Game (playing as a makeshift striker) at 11/1, and previously, which made a nice end to the weekend, Chris Hoy to win Sports Personality of the year at around 6/1.

That’s the Christmas shopping taken care of then.

A subscription to their site for everyone…