Roughly a quarter of the way into the new season and the Big Four have experiences vastly contrasting fortunes. We have a look at them…

Chelsea

Won five from five, on a great run currently, Drogba firing, Lampard re-finding his goalscoring touch, defence shored up… it all looks good for Carlo Ancelotti. Defeats to Wigan and Aston Villa have blighted their record but they are rightly strong favourites for the title. The return of Joe Cole is a boon, and there is a definite feeling around Stamford Bridge that not only is the Premier League there for the taking, but the Champions’ League too. The fact their transfer embargo has been suspended, allowing them to spend big in January when they lose influential players to the ACN, is significant.

Man United

United have been far from convining this season yet still have 25 points, only two less than Chelsea. They have lacked invention (Rooney aside), their formerly rock solid defence has looked ropey (Evra aside) and they already appear reliant on old timers Giggs and Scholes, who will not last the season. Nani has been nothing short of disastrous, Valencia yet to impress, Owen yet to convince he is not shot… yet they keep winning. Reputation is single handedly dragging them to victories. But how long will that last?

Liverpool

An all round disaster. Neither Gerrard nor Torres are or have been fully fit, and they have lost six of their last seven in all competitions. They have lost five in the league already, from eleven matches – last season they lost only two all season. Carragher looks shot, Alonso has left a gaping void… Benayoun is the only one who has really stepped up. They are in big trouble, Rafa is in big trouble, and Man City, Villa, Spurs et al must be filled with hope.

Arsenal

Outsiders at the start of the season (well, not ours) Arsenal have been playing some cracking football. They set a new Premier League record for goals scored and create reams of chances – but as their draw with West Ham showed (2-0 up with 18 mins to go) they still have a soft core. That will need to be largely eradicated (depending on how much their rivals struggle) for them to last the pace.

Our Prediction

1. Chelsea

2. Arsenal

3. Man United

4. Man City

5. Liverpool

6. Villa

After Liverpool’s sensational 4-1 destruction of Man United at Old Trafford, do we have a title race on our hands again? The table, and the bookies, still say no – United are 1/10, and remain four points clear of Liverpool and Chelsea with a game in hand. Certainly, they are strong favourites; but a win against the red half of Merseyside would have really put it to bed, whereas now both Chelsea and Liverpool will feel they’re in with a sniff. Guus Hiddink certainly thinks it’s live and kicking.

Let’s have a look at the respective run ins (and our predictions) and see what United would need to do to let one of them in. First, Liverpool:

Liverpool v Aston Villa – W
Fulham v Liverpool      – W
Liverpool v Blackburn   – W
Liverpool v Arsenal     – W
Hull v Liverpool        – W
Liverpool v Newcastle   – W
West Ham v Liverpool    – D
West Brom v Liverpool   – W
Liverpool v Tottenham   – W

Arsenal are their only really tough opponents from their last nine – and though they could drop points in one of their away matches, most likely West Ham, they could feasibly take 25 points from their remaining 27. Now Chelsea, who’s run-in is slightly harder:

Tottenham v Chelsea  – D
Newcastle v Chelsea  – W
Chelsea v Bolton     – W
Chelsea v Everton    – W
West Ham v Chelsea   – W
Chelsea v Fulham     – W
Arsenal v Chelsea    – D
Chelsea v Blackburn  – W
Sunderland v Chelsea – W

Chelsea should be able to take at least 23 points from their 27; particularly as they are becoming as mechanical under Hiddink as they were under Mourinho. If we assume Liverpool have one other unforeseen slip up – as they are wont to do – then both teams will take 22 points from 27, leaving them both on 83 points, and goal difference deciding who will be higher.

That means United, currently on 65 points, need to take 19 from their remaining 10 games to bring the title to Old Trafford for another season. Even with their slight wobble, is there any way they won’t do that? Let’s have a look…

Fulham v Man Utd         – D
Man Utd v Aston Villa    – W
Sunderland v Man Utd     – W
Wigan v Man Utd          – D
Man Utd v Portsmouth     – W
Man Utd v Tottenham      – D
Middlesbrough v Man Utd  – W
Man Utd v Man City       – W
Man Utd v Arsenal        – L
Hull v Man Utd           – W

This wholly conceivable run in – which wouldn’t be a drastic loss of form – garners them 21 points, enough to guarantee them the title. But, one more slip up, and they’ll only have 18 – putting them level with Liverpool and Chelsea.

It’s certainly United’s to lose, but as we can see, it’s not beyond the realms – and there are plenty of opportunities for them to drop points in their final ten matches.

Probably not in the way they had hoped for or envisaged, but Arsenal could have a big say in the destination of the Premier League; they play all the three challengers in their run in. Which must also give hope to Aston Villa, if they can snap out of their slump…

All it will take is United to draw or even lose another match or two – and we could have the most exciting season finale in years.