Here is the first of our 2009/10 Seasonal Previews. it comes from our sister site, Wakuba.com…

The Championship

Over the past few seasons the Championship has become one of the most competitive leagues in the world, with 24 teams all of relatively similar standard fighting it out in attritional game after attritional game. Managers and signings that turn out to be good, injuries, luck… all can have a strong influence. So you really can’t rule anyone out, although it is perhaps slightly fanciful to think Barnsley or Scunthorpe will win it.

That is why, in the ‘To Be Promoted’ market, 19 of the 24 sides are 16/1 or less to be promoted – and Scunthorpe are the longest price to finish in the Top 6 at (again) just 16/1. Contrast that with the Premiership, where Burnley are 50/1 to finish Top 6 (remember there are only 20 teams), and you can see the difference. Any one side can beat any other.

Newcastle are currently favourites for the title in most places – as short as 5/1 in places – which seems absurd considering the turmoil on and off the field. Yes, they have good players on paper – but if they cannot perform in the Premier League its unlikely they will fancy a midweek trip to Plymouth. Of course if a takeover is completed they could well have an influx of money designed to bring a quick return to the Premier League – but that is a big if.

Where Newcastle aren’t favourites, West Brom are, and this seems a far better pick. They have the nucleus of the side that went down last season, which is also the team that won the division so comprehensively the year before. In Roberto Di Matteo they have a promising young manager who did well at MK Dons, and will stay true to Tony Mowbray’s footballing principles. At a best price 13/2, if our money was going anywhere, it would be on the Baggies.

Other teams to consider include Boro, the other team to be relegated – they’ve remarkably kept most of their good players, and though Tuncay will probably join Downing in exiting the North East, they still have good players and an excellent crop of youth players.

Roy Keane’s excellent Championship record and the money available at Ipswich makes them a worthy consideration, and the teams who were there or thereabouts last season, like Reading, Cardiff, Preston, and Sheffield United are all worth considering.

After a summer spending spree Nottingham Forest have shortened from 40/1 to 25/1, and could be a decent each way punt even at that reduced price. In Billy Davies they have a canny manager with an excellent record at this level, and the word is they are making a concerted push for the Premier League.

As we said, any team could have a good season and push on – two that stand out are Doncaster, whose end of season form would have taken them into the playoffs over the season (12/1 for top 6) and Nigel Clough’s Derby, although the 3/1 in the same market is very short.

In terms of relegation, in the same way any side could conceivably finish top 6, a lot of sides could be dragged into the mire. It’s difficult to see any of the sides we mentioned as challengers actually getting relegated; but Scunthorpe, Plymouth, Blackpool and Barnsley must be anticipating tough seasons ahead.

Then you have the unknowns; the promoted sides Leicester and Peterborough, Swansea under new manager Paolo Sousa, and teams that could be dark horses like Sheffield Wednesday, Palace, and QPR. Any of these could feature at the top of the table – but also at the bottom!

Now watch one of the few teams we haven’t mentioned streak away at the top of the table…

Newcastle are gone. Gareth Freeman examines whether the man who took them down is the man to take them back up…

Newcastle’s defeat to Aston Villa on the final day of the season ended a sixteen-year stay in the Premier League and condemned them to Championship football next season.  It is fair to say that there is no way the club should have gone down, every week 50,000 fans turn up at St James’ Park and they have the status to attract decent players.

Unfortunately though since owner Mike Ashley took over the club things haven’t worked out for the Toon. In truth Ashley’s naivety has really cost Newcastle and he seems to have no idea of how to run a football club – it amazes me the guy has made money in other businesses.  So now they have the Championship to deal with next season and we all know this is no easy league to get out of.

When they appointed Shearer with eight games to go I thought it was a massive mistake (for Shearer, not necessarily the club).  He was a great captain as a player and definitely the sort of guy who could motivate his team-mates but as Newcastle manager, thus far at least, that hasn’t been the case.

Whoever does take the Newcastle job has a massive task on their hands.  The squad needs a complete overhaul and plenty of players will be on their way out, I can’t see the likes of Habib Beye, Sebastien Bassong, Jonas Gutierrez or Michael Owen wanting to play in the Championship next season.  Then there are players like Fabricio Coloccini and Francisco ‘Xisco’ Tejeda, who cost Newcastle a lot of money that they’re highly-unlikely to get back when the players leave.

Shearer may be a great motivator and he does seem to have the makings of a decent manager but I can’t help but feel this is a task that is too great for a manager to take as his first job.  If Shearer feels he is up to the task and can get in the players he needs to take the Toon back up at the first attempt then good luck to him, I for one am just a little more sceptical.

On Monday May 11th Middlesbrough make the short journey to St James’ Park to take on Newcastle United in what should be an ethralling relegation battle. Both sides desperately need three points if they are to put together a run and make a last dash towards survival and the game should be appraoched by the players like a cup-final.

To be totally honest I’m not expecting the game to display too much quality. Newcastle have only managed two points from their last six games, while Boro haven’t faired much better and have managed just four points. In relegation battles though it is the passion which often decides the outcome and I’m anticipating both sides to come out fighting as they bid to retain their Premier League status.

As the game is at St James’ Park the Newcastle faithful should be in full voice and the atmosphere should be electric. If Middlesbrough are to emerge victorious they will really need to attack Newcastle in the opening stages and silence the Toon army. This will be no easy task but I have noticed a slight improvement in Boro’s form over the last few games despite the losses, though they were at the hands of Manchester United and Arsenal respectively.

There will be a number of key battles across the pitch that will decide the outcome of the tie. If Newcastle name three up front with Obafemi Martins, Michael Owen and Mark Viduka then there should be plenty of chances for Newcastle, if their fairly poor midfield can create them. Boro’s defence hasn’t actually been that bad over the course of the season and their main problem has been scoring goals.

The game could rely on the performances of key players in both teams. In Newcastle’s case they will be looking to Martins, Owen and Jonas Gutierrez to lift their performance. Owen is the kind of player who can remain anonymous for 89 minutes but pop up with a goal anyway and Newcastle will be hoping he rediscovers his scoring form. The pace of Martins causes all kinds of trouble for defenders while Gutierrez is perhaps their most likely midfielder to create the openings for the strikers.

From a Middlesbrough perspective they need Stewart Downing to put in a heroic display. I’ve always thought Downing is a little overrated but he can deliver a decent ball and he has a fairly good shot on him. £12million flop Afonso Alves could finally endear himself to the Riverside crowd if he manages to get amongst the goals while loan star Marlon King could earn a permanent move to Boro if he manages to bag a few in the last three games of the season.

What this game lacks in quality should be more than made up for in passion. As well as it being a local derby it is a must win game for both sides and we really are set for a fierce battle on Tyneside. I wouldn’t like to predict a winner, it really is a tight encounter and it could all hinge on a single piece of quality to provide the winning goal. One thing is for sure though, it’s a safe football bet that this game will be played like a cup-final and should make for essential viewing.

The supporters of Newcastle United and Sunderland may not like to compare their respective clubs, but they are united by a current theme – caretaker managers. But the two clubs have taken different approaches to their caretakers in 2008.

Mike Ashley initially appointed Joe Kinnear on a month-to-month contract, which has since been extended to the end of the season. For Kinnear, it has represented something of a no-lose situation – the chance to put his hat back in the ring as a top-flight manager after an extended absence.

By contrast, Niall Quinn has committed to Ricky Sbragia by way of an 18-month contract. On paper, some backing for an unproven manager.

The nature of Sbragia’s appointment draws comparisons with Avram Grant’s spell at Chelsea last season – a relative unknown, mid season, stepping into the sizeable shoes of an iconic figure. Like Sbragia, Chelsea announced that Grant was a permanent appointment, handing him a four-year deal.

Grant did better than many expected, guiding Chelsea to within two points of the Premiership, and just the thickness of a Russian post from Champions League glory. But that was not enough to save his job, the Israeli making way for big-name boss ‘Big Phil’ Scolari.

There is a strong sense that Grant was never likely to remain beyond the end of last season, regardless of results; that Chelsea’s public backing of a longer contract was nothing more than a smokescreen.

Could the same be true of Ricky Sbragia? It can be difficult to secure the ‘right’ manager mid-season, and Niall Quinn may have targets in mind who will not become available until the summer. In the meantime, Sbragia represents a safe pair of hands, and no doubt an inexpensive one at that.

But if the caretaker were only offered a short-term contract, it might be seen to unsettle fans and players alike. This might explain the longer deal.

After an impressive start, Sbragia tasted the harsh realities of top-flight management with a resounding 3-0 defeat against Everton. How will he do in the New Year? Time will tell. But even if he steers Sunderland to mid-table security, don’t be surprised if he is eased out in the summer to be replaced by a more familiar name.

As we always say, in-depth reports and stats are better found elsewhere – we usually recommend the BBC, but after the Strictly Come Dancing fiasco they can no longer be trusted… so try Times Online instead.

Our mini-round up starts with the Big Four – a couple of weeks after they all failed to score, this time they all failed to win – each of them drawing. Chelsea were booed off the pitch after drawing with Zola’s West Ham, their former darling rapturously cheered upon entry. Scolari has said the fans were right; after dropping points in 6 of their last 9 home games, who can blame them? Arsenal and Boros’ inconsistency continued as they played out a draw, while Hull continued their superb form against the top sides, going 2-0 up to Liverpool before being pegged back and eventually holding on for 2-2. Man Utd will be the least worried of the top sides, drawing with a resurgent Tottenham side.

Villa won in thrilling style again, inspired by one of the most exciting English talents in recent years, Ashley Young. He followed two goals last week with another goal and assist in a 4-2 against Bolton, a game in which Gabriel Agbonlahor also starred.

Mark Hughes is under increasing pressure after City slumped to a home defeat to Everton – Tim Cahill stealing all three points with a last minute goal. But not as much pressure as ex-Man Utd team mate Paul Ince, who is hanging on by a thread – and probably not for much longer – as Blackburn were out thought, out fought and generally out played at Wigan. Steve Bruce, despite looking like an old lesbian woman, holds the bragging rights from that trio. Roy Keane’s memory is fading fast at the Stadium of Light where Sunderland crushed West Brom 4-0. It’s amazing what a chance of manager can do sometimes.

Stoke and West Brom played out a predictably dull 0-0, while the final game of the weekend saw Portsmouth crushed 3-0 by a Michael Owen inspired Newcastle. Perhaps as a result of that, he has today been officially offered a new contract.

Will he take it? Liverpool, Chelsea, Everton, and Villa, to name a few, will be keen to find out.

Here is the second half of our feature on the Premiership managers, focussing on the bottom half of the table. You can read the first half here.

11. Wigan – Steve Bruce
Arguably the most inconsistent team in the Premiership – blessed with talent such as Zaki, Heskey, Palacios and Valencia, Wigan blow hot and cold like no other. In some sort of form having won their past two games (for the first time in Bruce’s reign) – if it wasn’t for that they would be in the relegation zone. None of the teams in the bottom half are remotely safe as its so, so tight – but Wigan are at least the best placed of them.
Overall: 7/10. Its the points rather than the position you have to look at. Bruce has made some good signings, but you wonder where the goals will come from if, as expected, Zaki leaves in January.

12. Middlesbrough – Gareth Southgate
Southgate has assembled a young, exciting Boro side who, if they can keep the nucleus of the team together, could be one to watch over the next few seasons. However, they also suffer hugely from inconsistency, not helped by the erratic performances of their strikers Alves, Mido and Tuncay. As always Steve Gibson will give Southgate time, and lots of it – and the portents are good. A young squad and prolific youth system bode well, as long as they can stay out of trouble this season.
Overall: 7.5/10. Southgate is still learning the managerial game but signs are promising.

13. West Ham – Gianfranco Zola
Zola’s promise to bring pretty football to the Boleyn Ground has not really been realised. Somewhat surprisingly he has instilled some defensive solidity, with their third consecutive clean sheet in the 0-0 draw with Liverpool. Mark Noble is quoted saying it will take two years for West Ham to learn to play in Zola’s image – but does he have that long? Needs to score some goals and get some wins to bring some security.
Overall: 6.5/10. Slightly disappointing, but has sorted the defence out which deserves credit. His first managerial job and will surely be given time by the board.

14. Stoke – Tony Pulis
Rory Delap has been the revelation of the season with his rocket launched throw-ins – and Tony Pulis makes no excuses for the physical style Stoke adopt. They have won their last 5 home games and are formidable at the Britannia; away from home it is a rather different story. Without Delap’s throws Stoke would be bottom, so that is a cause for concern.
Overall: 8/10. As a promoted side, they have done well. Though there are concerns if their home form slips or sides figure out Delap, which must happen at some point…

15. Man City – Mark Hughes.
Positionally, desperately disappointing, but Hughes will point out they are only one win away from the top 10, two wins from the top 6, and three wins from the Champions League places! However, compared to last season progress has most definitely been backward (they sat second). With the addition of Jo, Robinho, SWP, Kompany et al that must be hugely concerning for the owners. Yes, signings need time to bed in, but if you spend that much you want some instant results. Hughes needs to turn things around, and fast, if he is not to be out on his ear. January signings may help – but they will take time to adapt, as the close season ones have.
Overall 4/10. Spending £75m and being nine places below Hull is inexcusable. Hughes is in desperate need of results. But with them, everything could so soon look so different.

16. Tottenham – Harry Redknapp.
His honeymoon period appears now to be over after consecutive defeats, but his rip-roaring start will remain long in the memory. Spurs are undoubtedly in a far better position that when he took over – but are only out of the relegation zone on goal difference. Redknapp, and the fans, must remember that the first target is to avoid going down. A top 10 finish, with a good cup run, would be an excellent season considering the start they had.
Overall: 9/10. Despite recent defeats, an excellent start. If he can turn around the recent setbacks they will shoot up the table.

17. Newcastle – Joe Kinnear.
A wholly uninspiring appointment, but he has brought some sense of stability to St James. A couple of draws, a win or two – and he was given the job until the end of the season. The best moment of his tenure was his outburst at journalists – ‘Which one of you is Simon Bird?’ will live long in the memory. Newcastle probably won’t go down, probably won’t finish above 12th, and Kinnear probably won’t have a job next season.
Overall: 6.5/10. Meh.

18. Sunderland – Roy Keane.
Until the last six games Sunderland would have been higher in the table and the outlook would be totally different. But five defeats in six, and losing their last four at home including the shambolic 1-4 defeat to Bolton, have heaped the pressure on. You would not bet against Keane walking away if he didn’t feel he was the right man for the job (he has said as much) – and surely he would walk before he he was pushed. That is not yet a possibility (remember they were bottom of the Championship only a couple of years ago) but board and fans will want Keane to turn things round, and fast.
Overall: 5/10. But a good run of results will push it back up to a 7/8, where he was earlier in the season.

19. Blackburn – Paul Ince.
Second favourite in the sack race (behind Keane) Ince is reported to have asked for six games to turn things around for a struggling Blackburn side. It was always going to be difficult to continue the great work Mark Hughes did, but under him they were consistently top 10 and board and fans will want, at the very minimum, safety. 19th is not good enough, and unless Ince can engineer a change in fortunes, he will not be there at the end of the season.
Overall: 3/10. Has done nothing to suggest he is up to the job. But, with things so tight, again a few wins and the outlook will be very different.

20. West Brom – Tony Mowbray.
Admirably steadfastly sticking to his principles of pretty football – unfortunately its only proved to be pretty ineffective. Stone bottom and favourites for relegation, West Brom desperately need their backwards and sideways passing to produce results. The most disappointing aspect will be the defeats to Stoke and Hull – West Brom finished comfortably above them last season, and if they cannot beat those sides, what chance do they have?
Overall: 4/10. You cannot rate someone too highly who is bottom of the league. Deserves respect for his footballing mantra but that will cut short shrift if results don’t improve.

A wholly uninspiring set of results yesterday. You can can get full match reports and details of the tedium elsewhere, so we’ll focus on a more abstract element of each game.

Stoke 1 Hull 1

A debatable 73rd minute penalty, won and converted by Ricardo Fuller, cancelled out Marlon King’s excellent strike on the stroke of half time in the battle of the promoted sides.

Dean Windass endeared himself further to the Hull fans – if that’s possible – by obstructing Rory Delap’s freakish throw ins from the bench. Twice he warmed up deliberately in the path of the ugly one’s mammoth run up – twice he was reprimanded, and once booked. Novel, if not exactly sporting…

Sunderland 1 Bolton 4

Goals from alleged-homosexual Matt Taylor, Gary Cahill, and Johan Elmander (2) won this for Bolton after Djibril Cisse’s early strike.

This game compounded Sunderland’s terrible recent form – 6 defeats in 7 games – and extended Bolton’s good run – 4 wins in 5, including three away from home. Roy Keane is now favourite to be next manager to go, at 11/8 – incidentally followed in the betting by two other Alex Ferguson proteges, Mark Hughes and Paul Ince.

Cahill reiterated the Fantasy Football dilemma; goalscoring defenders who do not keep clean sheets. He notched 14 points, but similarly to Hull’s Michael Turner, you can never back on the shut-out. I’m personally against them; you select a defender for a clean sheet, and there are only rare occasions you would back Bolton or Hull to keep one (maybe 4 or 5 games a season). If you rely on your defenders to score goals for points, you’re clutching at straws.

Wigan 2 West Brom 1

Goals from Henri Camara and Emmerson Boyce won this for Wigan after a trademark error from Titus Bramble let in Ismael Miller to give the Baggies the lead.

With Wigan’s remarkable inconsistency you wouldn’t have ruled out an away win here – evidence of that is that yesterday saw Wigan gain their first back-to-back Premiership victories under Steve Bruce, after a year / 39 matches.

Villa 0 – 0 Fulham

Villa are now unbeatable but cannot score – how much they need big John Carew back to get on the end of Ashley Young’s penetrating crosses. In this game, Gareth Barry missed three and Martin Laursen two chances created by the exciting young winger (no pun intended).

Roy Hodgson is doing a great job at Fulham; a shoestring budget and a threadbare squad, but a well-drilled, well-organised side that are difficult to beat.

In this game Brad Friedel broke David James’ record for consecutive Premiership appearances, making his 167th start in a row for Blackburn and now Villa.

Boro 0-0 Newcastle

Tyne and Tees were united in delight at Sunderland’s demise – but there was little else to warm the cockles in a dull game.

Obafemi Martins provided a rare moment of interest, throwing his armband to the ground and storming down the tunnel after being replaced towards the end of the game. After the abject performance of a patently unfit Michael Owen he was perhaps right to be aggrieved…

Let’s hope today provides us with a few more interesting genuine footballing highlights!

Joking Here – Joe Kinnear? No? Ah well.

In any case, his contract has been extended to the end of the season – his mediocrity has been rewarded. Read the full story here on Sky Sports.

Spare a thought for Michael Owen. A couple of years back he was playing for Real Madrid and a mainstay of the England side, now he’s playing for Joe Kinnear and can’t even get in the squad.

For the first time for nearly a century all of the current big 4 – Chelsea, Liverpool, Man Utd, and Arsenal – failed to score on the same weekend. Arsenal were the only side to lose, 3-0 to Man City, to further compound their misery and disarray. This is the most testing period Arsene Wenger has faced since he took over, and it will be interesting to see how he deals with it. What he would have given yesterday for Fabrice Muamba, who drove Bolton forward, or for Matthew Upson, so strong for England in midweek – both cast-offs from his reign. Arsenal are in trouble, there is no doubt of that. They are no longer in the top 4, and have never looked less likely to go on one of their famous runs. Can ‘The Professor’ sort them out?

For Man Utd, Chelsea, and Liverpool, who all drew 0-0, there is less cause for concern. Each will be delighted not to lose ground on the others. Each were held for differing reasons – Utd versus a genuinely quality opposition (Villa), Chelsea against a team who performed a textbook parking of the bus (Newcastle), and Liverpool having a slight off day against a well-organised and well drilled Fulham side.

They will all breathe a sigh of relief that they have not slipped from their current positions, and redouble their efforts next weekend (after the Champions League in midweek).

Of the other two games yesterday, Bolton secured a well earned 3-1 win against Boro, ending the home side’s 5 match unbeaten run – Matt Taylor reminded us of his goalscoring ability, and Johan Elmander got back on the scoresheet.

Finally, in the battle of the promoted sides, Stoke’s belligerent physical ‘football’ overcame West Brom’s sideways and backwards passing, their 1-0 win thanks to a header from the massive Mamady Sidibe.

Spurs take on Blackburn in just under half an hour – and there’s no place for Frazier Campbell, as Pavyluchenko starts alongside Darren Bent. Brilliant. (See here).

Results, scorers, and less interestingly bookings, in full:

Aston Villa	0-0 (HT 0-0)	Man Utd
Bookings: Davies 77

Chelsea	0-0 (HT 0-0)	Newcastle
		Bookings: Gutierrez 50 Guthrie 86

Liverpool	0-0 (HT 0-0)	Fulham

Man City	3-0 (HT 1-0)	Arsenal
Ireland 45+2 Robinho 56 Sturridge (pen) 90+2
		Bookings: Song Billong 87

Middlesbrough	1-3 (HT 0-2)	Bolton
Pogatetz 77		Steinsson 8 Taylor 10 Elmander 78
Bookings: Pogatetz 7 Digard 22		Bookings: Muamba 52 Cahill 63 Samuel 67 Nolan 70 McCann 84

Portsmouth	2-2 (HT 1-0)	Hull
Crouch 20 Johnson 63		Turner 54 Pamarot o.g. 89
Bookings: Diop 85 Davis 90+5		Bookings: Windass 86

Torres starts for Liverpool, while Lucas comes into the side for Xabi Alonso, while Fulham remain unchanged from the side that defeated Tottenham.

Jermain Defoe and Lassana Diarra are both injured for Portsmouth, replaced by John Utaka and Richard Hughes. Hull are unchanged from the 2-2 draw with Man City.

Lampard does indeed make it back for Chelsea, alongside Ashley Cole and Joe Cole (I doubt Capello will ne too pleased to read that – not that he’ll be reading this site, obviously). Cech also returns in goal. The crocked Joey Barton is replaced with Danny Guthrie for Newcastle, while the legendary Michael Owen comes in for Shola Ameobi (who must think himself a bit unlucky after 2 in his last 3, and an assist)

Wheater is in for Boro and Steinson in for Bolton in probably the least interesting game of the day.

RIcardo Fuller is suspended for Stoke and replaced by Dave Kitson (no goals in 14 games) while Tom Soares starts in midfield. Roman Bednar and James Morrison are out for West Brom, replaced by Chris Brunt Do-Heon Kim.

From the BBC: Deep breath now… Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger leaves skipper William Gallas out of the squad after the player made derogatory comments about his team-mates this week – and Emmanuel Adebayor is also excluded. Keeper Manuel Almunia is handed the captain’s armband. The exclusion of Gallas is one of four changes (Adebayor was on the bench last time out), with Cesc Fabregas (suspension), Theo Walcott (shoulder) and Bacary Sagna (ankle) out. In come Gavin Hoyte, Johan Djourou, Alex Song and Robin van Persie.

Man City replace Tal Ben Haim with the returning Richard Dunne.

That concludes the team news for the 15.00s… I’m off to watch hairy Jeff Stelling.