Can Man City become the first side since Everton to break the Monopoly of the Top Four?

This man certainly thinks so, setting it out as his aim when he joined. And in becoming the first manager EVER to win his first four games, he has put down a strong marker. However, I could probably have beaten Stoke, Wolves, Boro and Blackburn (with Man City’s side obviously, not alone) so there are no great shakes there.

City’s next four games, in which they face Everton and Manchester United twice, will be a far better indicator.

It’s looked all season like City will struggle to gel, that chucking all those players together won’t pay dividends immediately, that the contrasting playing styles won’t smoothly cocktail into a winning formula.

But Mancini might just be the agent the City diaspora requires. New manager syndrome and all that, and someone with an impressive CV (three consecutive Serie A titles) may provide a jolt of impetus. We will see over the next few weeks.

What will also have an effect is their action in the transfer window. Defenders must be a priority, with Lescott and Bridge looking sub-standard and Toure a shadow of the player he once was. Zabaleta (playing out of position) looks the most capable – although Micah Richards is experiencing some form of renaissance.

The impact of Patrick Vieira will also be interesting. Will he play? If he does, is he up for it? It is well known Arsene Wenger turned down the chance to re-sign him, and there are reports his legs are ‘gone’. His winning mentality should have a positive effect of the pitch; but what will he do on it?

All ifs, buts, and maybes. But you can back City at 3/1 to finish ahead of United – and for my money that’s a good bet.

Our sister site, Wakuba – http://wakuba.com – has been getting some press recently. We see it as a genuine way to make money – an alternative to investing in stocks and shares (and we all know how that’s ended up!). With carefully researched selections, and researchers highlighting relevant trends/issues around players, teams and games, is it really that different from a stockbroker analysing macro and micro economic factors? With a strong track record that you can see here, are we right?

Here is a detailed exploration…

What do you associate with City Traders? Fast cars, rich boys, proud mothers. ‘Little Jonny’s gone to work in the City’, the ultimate success story, the boy done good. It has a kudos, it is a boast, a brag, an honour – it is success.

Contrast that with the sports traders – flat caps, cheap cigars, angry wives. ‘Derek’s gone round the bookies again!’, the bet you can’t afford, the patriachal betrayal. It’s a vice, it’s illicit, it’s shunned, tutted at, looked down on – it is seedy.

Perhaps it is the names in the city, the Merrill Lynchs, JP Morgans, and Goldman Sachs. The fact you need extensive qualifications, an excellent education, and a lot of the time a good network of contacts. Very different from wandering into your local Ladbrokes or logging into your Internet betting account.

But ultimately, what is the difference? City traders factor in macro economic factors like the price of oil, the conflict in the middle east, the presidential election, acts of terrorism, and speculate on how they affect shares on the stock exchange. They garner the information, assess the information, then use the information to ‘take a position’ – basically have a bet. They bet that a stock will go up or down, and profit or lose by the result.

How is this different from trading on sports? Punters assess team information, assess fixtures, form, injuries, priorities, playing styles, and how they will affect teams’ performances. They garner the information, assess the information, then use the information to ‘take a position’ – make a bet. They bet that a team will win or lose (or goals will be over or under, and so on), and profit or loss by the result.

As the current economic climate, the credit crunch, illustrates – traders get it wrong. Just like sports punters, they make the wrong selections, pick the wrong thing – but for them the risk is bringing down whole economies – whole countries – rather than losing the dinner money.

Yes, the stock exchange is more of a macro concept; bear markets and bull markets, recessions and booms triggered by changes in the oil price, natural disasters, trade embargoes – but this is not so far away from sporting ‘seasons’; patches of form, good or bad runs triggered by players in a purple patch, defences keeping clean sheets, players getting lots of bookings.

Although you could contrast ‘trades’ and ‘bets’, they are essentially the same; broken down, a ‘trade’ is simply a position one way or the other, a win or lose. The degree of movement dictates your win or loss, creating a ‘fixed odds’ scenario, where your win is multiplicative of your stake.

In this respect ‘betting’ actually has an advantage – you know how much you could lose, you know your risk, your exposure. With a trade (bar the stop loss) your loss is potentially limitless – your whole stake can be wiped out in one earthquake, tsunami, or terrorist attack.

Not only is your stake limited and defined, it is also much smaller. Where in trading can you make a 10 or 20 fold profit without taking a huge position? A ‘long odds’ winner in sports betting is – relatively – a for more frequent occurrence than a stock increasing twentyfold in value.

So why the stigma? Why is trading admired, lauded and aspired to, whereas betting is criticised, sniffed at, and seen as the prevail of the working classes?

Why indeed. There is no reason, with extensive research and analysis, with effective use of information and resultant ‘positions’, sports trading cannot be as – if not more – profitable than ‘trading’.

A good return right now is 5% – over a year of constant ‘betting’, with researched and evaluated bets, we can make more than that – potentially much more.

And that is the aim of Wakuba – making money by betting on sports. A 5% return would be disappointing over a year – we are aiming for 10-20%. We are betting on outcomes and results that are directly related to the information we gather – exactly the same as a ‘trader’.

You talk about investing in the stock exchange – we are investing in sports. Wakuba – not betting, investing. And we won’t bankrupt anyone.

This post is taken directly from, and with thanks to, Wakuba – a subscription sports advisory service.

The Clough Factor

by Wakuba on Jan.08, 2009, under Selections

Our predictions this week were nothing short of abysmal.

But our friends at Wakuba, a subscription betting service (with some free content) did a whole lot better.

A bumper – nay lucrative – weekend for them, and therefore us, included backing Dortmund in the Bundesliga, laying both Arsenal and Rangers, and then somewhat more spectacularly Tim Cahill to score first in the Everton Game (playing as a makeshift striker) at 11/1, and previously, which made a nice end to the weekend, Chris Hoy to win Sports Personality of the year at around 6/1.

That’s the Christmas shopping taken care of then.

A subscription to their site for everyone…

For the first time in a while, tomorrow we’ll have no results to report nor games taking place (prior to the weekend bonanza, of course). The incessant deluge of fixtures is brilliantly overwhelming.

Hopefully that hiatus will give us some time to lay down some entertaining prose on something or other. Give infinite monkeys infinite typewriters and all that…

To make this post worthwhile, here is an excellent site for watching online football – our tip is to download Sopcast to unlock a world of possibilities.

And our favourite goal ever, from the mercurial Zlatan Ibrahimovic:

That’s what our friends at Wakuba think….

http://wakuba.com/2008/12/next-sunderland-manager/

Both English sides lost last night, but with contrasting consequences – Villa’s surprise 2-1 home defeat to Zilina did not stop them qualifying due to results elsewhere, but Portsmouths’ 3-2 defeat in Wolfsburg meant they could not progress.

Obviously lots of goals last night, which is nice, as thanks to our friends at Wakuba we backed over 2.5 goals in the Portsmouth match. They also gave us an under-the-table long shot of Zilina at 11-1 – we’ll be dining out on that for a while!

If you like tales of betting woe, read on… the other bet we had was the last goal in the Pompey game being after the 74th minute. Joy became despair/anger when we realised Wolfsburg’s third goal was during rather than after the 74th minute (73.25 to be precise – 35 seconds too early). Hope anew with the award of a penalty to the Germans after 81 minutes – only for them to miss it!

A profitable night nonetheless…

Brilliantly, Didier Drogba has been charged by the FA for throwing a coin into the crowd (as discussed a few posts below). Click the photo for the full story…

Disgusting Drogba

Fingers crossed he goes down for life, the disgusting, atrocious human being that he is. (I’m not specifically passing judgement on him for this, I just hate him generally)

The below is why we are a football blog and not a betting blog. Histon were one of three non-league teams who beat league opposition, disposing of Swindon 1-0!

Don’t listen to our betting predictions; but be sure to follow our witticisms and acutely observational and humorous missives.

See our friends over as http://sportsas.blogspot.com for your weekend betting tips…

The stand out bet being Swindon at 11/10 away to Histon.