Early Analysis of the Relegation Battle…

Here is the Premiership table updated after this weekend’s fixtures (courtesy of the BBC).

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	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	W	D	L	F	A	GD	PTS
1	Chelsea	13	3	2	1	13	3	7	0	0	19	1	28	32
2	Liverpool	13	5	1	0	11	4	5	1	1	10	4	13	32
3	Man Utd	12	5	1	0	18	4	2	2	2	7	6	15	24
4	Arsenal	13	4	1	2	14	10	3	1	2	11	5	10	23
5	Aston Villa	13	3	2	1	10	7	4	0	3	12	9	6	23
6	Hull	13	2	2	3	7	14	4	1	1	12	7	-2	21
7	Everton	13	1	3	3	7	12	4	1	1	12	9	-2	19
8	Middlesbrough	13	3	1	2	7	9	2	2	3	7	9	-4	18
9	Portsmouth	13	3	1	2	8	6	2	2	3	5	12	-5	18
10	Fulham	12	5	1	1	10	5	0	1	4	2	6	1	17
11	Sunderland	13	2	1	3	6	8	2	2	3	6	11	-7	15
12	Man City	13	3	0	3	16	8	1	2	4	10	14	4	14
13	Bolton	13	2	2	3	6	7	2	0	4	5	8	-4	14
14	West Ham	13	3	1	3	11	11	1	1	4	5	11	-6	14
15	Stoke	13	4	0	2	10	9	0	2	5	3	15	-11	14
16	Wigan	13	1	2	3	3	8	2	2	3	12	10	-3	13
17	Newcastle	13	3	2	2	11	9	0	2	4	6	13	-5	13
18	Blackburn	13	1	2	4	4	12	2	2	2	10	12	-10	13
19	Tottenham	13	2	1	3	6	6	1	2	4	10	14	-4	12
20	West Brom	13	2	1	4	8	14	1	1	4	2	10	-14	11

There are a ridiculous 10 points between bottom and 6th place, and anyone across that range is very much at risk of relegation. It is a bit early to start making predictions, but judging on form so far this season, here’s our analysis of the battle to avoid the drop.

Aside from the Top 4, and Villa, you have to say that anyone else could still go down. Hull are in all probability safe, but they risk their ‘unknown’ factor being lost in the second half of the season; teams will know how to play them, and they will struggle to pick up points. They still need to double their current tally to be safe and that is easier said than done. It would take a drastic loss of form and unlikely run of results to condemn them, however.

You also have to think Everton will be ok, they have a lot of quality (Yakuba, Saha, Cahill, Arteta, Fallaini, Lescott, Jagielka) and are now coming into form. Man City should be fine – if only by buying their way out of trouble – and Redknapp’s legacy at Portsmouth (bar a fire sale in January) should see them clear. Roy Keane and Sunderland should have enough to avoid struggling – Kenwyne Jones and Djibril Cisse are a potent front two, and acquisitions such as Malbranque and Chimbonda add further quality.

You would have said Spurs would push for the top 6 now they’re a rejuvinated outfit uder Redknapp, but a surprise defeat to Fulham has re-raised doubts, and could do the same to the players. You cannot underestimate how much of a liability Huerelho (how do you spell that?) Gomes actually is. But, with the team they have, and assuming ‘Arry gets them back on the rails, you have to fancy them for a top 10 finish.

Middlesbrough have an exciting young side and though inconsistent, on their day they can beat the better sides and thus should accumulate enough points – a team to watch over the next few seasons.

Roy Hodgson is an astute manager (remember he very nearly got the England job not so long ago) and his nous, plus key men Hangerland, Bullard, Murphy and Johnson, should see Fulham to at least 17th place.

So that leaves us with Newcastle, West Ham, Bolton, Stoke, West Brom, and Blackburn. Take your pick from those six – sticking my neck out, I’ll say West Brom, Stoke, and – depending on managerial changes – one of Blackburn and West Ham to go down.

West Brom play great football, pass the ball nicely, and try to outplay rather than outfight of out manouevre teams – but they just don’t have enough quality. They will never, in a passing, footballing style, outclass Man Utd, Chelsea, Spurs – even Fulham. And though I admire them, admire Mowbray for his ideals, his purism could be the death of him.

Take out Rory Delap’s long throws and Stoke would be comfortably bottom; and that weapon will, eventually, be nullified. Like Hull, they’ll suffer from losing their surprise factor, and I see them really plummeting in the second half of the season. They just don’t have any good players!

Blackburn and West Ham both have young, inexperienced managers – but decent squads. If either can turn it around – or either are fired and replaced with experience and nous – both are capable of pulling clear of danger. But, I don’t think both will, and one will go down. With previous form in that area, West Ham probably have most to worry about.

And so, rather because of the paucity of other sides than their own quality, Newcastle, Bolton, and Blackburn may survive.

I’ll revisit this in 6 months time…